Doom and Gloom
A short time ago (‘The Economic Precipice’) I warned
about an impending economic collapse. According to The
World Socialist Web Site:
Experts warn that the debt bubble potentially dwarfs the US stock market asset bubble that burst in 2000. Consumer credit and mortgage debt represent a higher percentage of disposable income than ever before. Household debt as a percentage of assets reached the historic high of 22.6 percent in the first quarter of 2003. The Federal Reserve revealed that personal savings dropped to a mere 2 percent of after-tax income in the first half of 2003.
Much (if not all) of the supposed increase in wealth is a result of rising house
prices. If you bought a house for $150,000 and it’s now worth $300,000 you have
made a paper profit of $150,000. What's more, you can borrow against $300,000
security. If someone gets laid off work and can no longer afford repayments, then
the bank can reposes the home and will attempt to sell it in order to recover
at least part of the dept. If this happens on a large scale then the houses that
the banks attempt to sell will drop in price – it becomes buyers market. This
causes house prices to drop even further and houses that were purchases for $250,000
are now worth only $200,000. Someone who is paying off a mortgage is still in
dept even if after they sell the house.
This is an accident waiting to happen. However, there is a way of making money when all around are losing theirs.
In January 1980 gold went from $559 per ounce at the start of the month to $850
on the 21st. It had moved from a low of $160 in May 1978. In today's money, $850
is around $1700 per ounce. If people lose confidence in dollars they will buy
gold, pushing the price up even further. Investing in gold is a much safer bet
than investing in property.