Doom and Gloom (II)

Doom sayers have been prophesying the end of civilisation since the start of the Common Era. The years 1000, 1666, 2000 and 2012 have been marked as particularly significant. In 1665 there was the great plague in which around 100,000 people died, and which would have seemed cataclysmic at the time. In 1666 the Great Fire of London would have seemed cataclysmic to those involved. In the 1930’s there was an economic depression that does not figure as cataclysmic but was devastating for those caught up in it.

Never has the world been so populated and never have countries and economies been so interconnected. The Great Fire of London effected London and, to a certain extent, the English economy, but a similar devastation today on, say, New York would plunge the world into chaos. People today are far more dependent on technology and infrastructure than at any time in the past. Many people can’t even cook for themselves, let alone fish, sow or hunt to obtain food. In this light it is worth considering the following issues:

Oil. This is from Daily Reckoning:
"I wouldn't be surprised to see $100 or $200 for a barrel of oil in the next five to ten years," says Marc Faber. "It's not a projection. It's that I wouldn't be surprised."
Faber lives in Asia. He looks out his window and sees a huge uptake in the use of fossil fuels. He says, "We [in China] have a per capita consumption of oil of 1.7 barrels. In America it's 28 barrels, in South Korea 17 barrels, Japan 17 barrels, in India 0.7 barrels. In Vietnam it's probably also less than one barrel. So, in Asia with the population of 3.6 billion people, we consume less oil than the United States, with a population of 295 million.
When oil reserves run out it will be sudden. In the 1970’s the US oil reserves ran out and triggered the OPEC oil crises. The Middle East suddenly had control over the price of oil – and used its power, initially to control the West. Subsequently the Saudi rulers realised they were better off trading with the West and selling their oil. They got very rich in the process.
Fish. Due to over fishing, reserves of edible fish will run within the next few years. The cost of fish has escalated and the quality gone down within the last few years. This is from Global Change:
If you push any ecosystem too far, you can generate changes that are either irreversible or where it takes a very very long time to return to the original state. Therefore, even drastic reductions in fishing effort on seriously depleted stocks may not lead to an immediate restoration of the stocks” says Richardson.
In some respects the fish situation is similar to the oil situation: it will reach a head suddenly.
Disease. According to The World Health Organization::
Although health care has improved in the last decades, epidemiological models from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA project that today a pandemic is likely to result in 2 to 7.4 million deaths globally. In high-income countries alone, accounting for 15% of the worlds population, models project a demand for 134–233 million outpatient visits and 1.5–5.2 million hospital admissions. However, the impact of the next pandemic is likely to be the greatest in low income countries because of different population characteristics and the already strained health care resources.
The Economy. I've discussed before issues with the economy. The USA prints money in order to pay its bills, eventually other countries will lose faith in the US Dollar and the US pump which powers the global economy will stall.
Wars. Wars have been around since the dawn of time. Last century there were two world wars and thousands of ‘minor’ skirmishes such as the Korean and the Vietnam wars. The big difference now is that when the Soviet Union was functional the world was, as it were, held between two poles of a magnet. Africa, for instance, was far wealthier as both powers pumped money into the continent in order to gain military control. Now it is left to its own devises with all the problems that that has caused.

With all world issues, there are two worlds. There is the world of external events: wars, diseases etc that happen to other people, we see them on our television. And there is our own world: the day-to-day problems we encounter. Sometimes they collide when we, or someone we are close to, is laid off work or gets ill. As someone put it, the issues reach home when you turn on the light switch and nothing happens.

I've mentioned before (“Praying to God”) that under pressure, people find their faith. This is part of the cycle of nature. It is faith, in the end, that protects the individual from the chaos around. Even when there is a cyclone, some buildings are left intact; even in economic collapse, some people still have work; even in an earthquake, some people survive.